A 7.4-magnitude earthquake shook the coffee-producing areas of Colombia and also disrupted the global coffee futures market. For Ethiopian coffee exporters who have been under price pressure for the past few months, this might be a rare window of opportunity. 

 

In mid-August, the global price of Arabica coffee soared significantly. The price of Arabica coffee futures in New York rose to the range of $3.19 to $3.22 per pound, having previously reached even higher levels. 

 

The direct trigger for the price increase was the 7.4-magnitude strong earthquake that occurred in the western part of Colombia. As one of the world's largest producers of washed Arabica coffee, Colombia's export supply chain was severely impacted. The infrastructure in major coffee-producing areas such as Caldas and Risalaidalda was damaged, and the transportation routes to the Buenaventura Port (one of the country's most important export gateways) were also disrupted. Against the backdrop of already low global coffee inventories over the years, any supply disruption from major producing countries would be quickly magnified by the market.

 

At the same time, Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, also sent out negative news. The harvest progress in some Arabica-producing areas in Minas Gerais State was slower than in previous years. The combination of these two factors exacerbated market concerns about short-term supply.

 

For Ethiopian exporters: The price window is opening. 

 

For Ethiopian coffee exporters, this round of price increase comes at just the right time. 

 

Over the past few months, Ethiopian exporters have been suffering from the "double squeeze" of high domestic procurement costs and weak international market prices. Ethiopian domestic coffee prices remain high, while international buyers' quotations have not kept pace, resulting in a significant reduction in export profit margins. Many exporters who have accumulated inventory at high prices are facing the risk of losses. 

 

The continuous rise in the international Arabica benchmark price is expected to narrow the gap between domestic and international prices. For exporters holding inventory, this means that their goods can finally be sold at better prices in the international market. 

 

However, the impact varies depending on the coffee grade and the exporter. Ethiopian specialty coffee (including high-grade washed and sun-dried processed beans) is usually traded at a price higher than the New York futures benchmark. Export prices also depend on quality, origin, processing method, and buyer demand.

 

The opportunities for African-origin 

 

Coffee in the Chinese market present both short-term benefits and a test for local Ethiopian exporters like AWO Coffee, who have already

established brand recognition in China. 

 

Approximately 90% of AWO Coffee's finished coffee products are sold in the Chinese market. Over the past few years, the company has gradually shifted from "selling raw beans" to "selling branded roasted coffee" by participating in the China International Import Expo, connecting with e-commerce platforms, and building brand recognition in the Chinese market. When international coffee prices rise, AWO Coffee can have greater pricing autonomy compared to traders who merely export raw beans. 

 

At the same time, starting from May 2026, China has implemented zero-tariff policies for 53 African countries, including Ethiopia, further enhancing the price competitiveness of Ethiopian coffee in the Chinese market. The combination of the price window and policy benefits presents an opportune period for Ethiopian coffee brands that have been deeply entrenched in the Chinese market. 

 

Of course, coffee prices are influenced by various factors. How long the supply disruption in Colombia will last and whether the harvest progress in Brazil can keep up are all unknowns. But at least in this August, Ethiopian coffee exporters have reason to breathe a sigh of relief.

 

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