The sales of coffee beans have soared by 140%, and it is expected to continue to increase in the future.
19
08
2026
According to the "2026 China Urban Coffee Development Report" and related industry data, China's coffee market has reached a scale of 354.9 billion yuan. However, what truly matters is not the total volume, but the sharp divergence among product categories—
coffee bean sales surged by 140.38%, far outpacing others; instant coffee followed closely with a growth rate of 69.05%. Meanwhile, transaction volumes for pod coffee, ready-to-drink coffee, and coffee gift sets have significantly contracted, declining between 62% and 93%.
coffee bean
The shift from rising to falling indicates that consumers' preferences have evolved from seeking convenience to pursuing quality, moving from instant coffee to freshly ground and hand-brewed options. The Chinese coffee market is undergoing a comprehensive category upgrade. Coffee beans and coffee machines together accounted for 28% of total sales revenue, solidifying the dual-drive model of "home brewing" and "in-store consumption."
Additionally, affected by the El Niño phenomenon, major global crops have suffered significant yield declines. Global food prices have reached their highest level in three years, with international coffee futures surging nearly 40% over the past month and a half—an astonishing increase.
coffee
As of August 11 local time, the price of Arabica coffee futures on the New York Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reached $3.128 per pound. Since the beginning of June, the price has risen by nearly 40%. The price of cocoa futures on ICE was $5,637 per ton, having soared by 42.7% from approximately $3,950 per ton in mid-June.
Some experts stated that the supply of agricultural products such as coffee and cocoa is highly concentrated in the Americas and Southeast Asia on both sides of the Pacific Ocean. These regions are precisely located in the core area of the El Niño weather disturbance and are most directly affected. Therefore, the strengthening of expectations of reduced production has pushed up the prices. The so-called "El Niño risk premium" is ultimately a reflection of market psychology driven by expectations.
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